Brad Armendt
Emeritus Professor, SHPRS Philosophy Faculty
Emeritus Professor, Center for Social Dynamics and Complexity (CSDC)
Emeritus Professor, School for the Future of Innovation in Society
Senior Global Futures Scientist, Global Futures Scientists and Scholars
Long Bio
Professor Armendt's research centers on rational decision making and the epistemology of rational belief. Beliefs and inferences about causation have particular significance to both areas, and he is interested in causation, causal models, and causal inference. Another interest is in understanding social phenomena—patterns of behavior, norms, networks, communication systems—as complex products and conditions of interactions among individuals. He is particularly interested in the work of the remarkable early 20th century philosopher, Frank Ramsey.
Education
- Ph.D. Philosophy, University of Illinois at Chicago 1983
- B.A. Philosophy and Mathematics, Rice University 1975
Research Interests
Professor Armendt's research centers on rational decision making and the epistemology of rational belief. Beliefs and inferences about causation have particular significance to both areas, and he is interested in causation, causal models, and causal inference. Another interest is in understanding social phenomena—patterns of behavior, norms, networks, communication systems—as complex products and conditions of interactions among individuals. He is particularly interested in the work of the remarkable early 20th century philosopher, Frank Ramsey.
Publications
- Brad Armendt, Causal Decision Theory and Decision Instability. Journal of Philosophy (2019).
Chosen for The Philosopher's Annual, as one of the ten best articles in philosophy, 2019.
- Brad Armendt, Deliberation and Pragmatic Belief. Pragmatic Encroachment in Epistemology (2019)
- Brad Armendt, Causal Decision Theory. Introduction to Formal Philosophy (2018).
- Brad Armendt. On Risk and Rationality. Erkenntnis (2014).
- Brad Armendt. Pragmatic Interests and Imprecise Belief. Philosophy of Science (2013).
- Armendt, Brad and Zollman, Kevin. Skyrmsfest, special issue of Philosophical Studies, including Introduction (2010).
- Brad Armendt. Stakes and Beliefs. Philosophical Studies (2010).
- Brad Armendt. Stake-Invariant Belief. Acta Analytica (2008).
- Armendt, Brad Frank Ramsey. The Philosophy of Science, An Encyclopedia (2006).
- Armendt, Brad Frank Ramsey. Companion to Analytic Philosophy (2001).
- Armendt, Brad ed. Belief and Probability, special issue of Philosophical Studies, including Introduction (1995).
- Armendt, Brad Review of: Notes on Philosophy, Probability, and Mathematics, by F. P. Ramsey. Philosophical Review (1994).
- Armendt, Brad Dutch Books, Additivity, and Utility Theory. Philosophical Topics (1993).
- Armendt, Brad Dutch Strategies for Diachronic Rules: When Believers See the Sure Loss Coming. PSA 1992 (1993).
- Armendt, Brad Impartiality and Causal Decision Theory. PSA 1988 (1989).
- Armendt, Brad Conditional Preference and Causal Expected Utility. Causation in Decision, Belief Change, and Statistics (1988).
- Armendt, Brad A Foundation for Causal Decision Theory. Topoi (1986).
Courses
2022 Spring
| Course Number | Course Title |
|---|---|
| PHI 101 | Introduction to Philosophy |
| PHI 792 | Research |
| PHI 799 | Dissertation |
| PHI 420 | Topics in Philosophy |
| PHI 525 | Rational Choice |
2021 Fall
| Course Number | Course Title |
|---|---|
| PHI 314 | Philosophy of Science |
| PHI 333 | Symbolic Logic |
| PHI 792 | Research |
| PHI 799 | Dissertation |
| HPS 314 | Philosophy of Science |
2021 Spring
| Course Number | Course Title |
|---|---|
| PHI 333 | Symbolic Logic |
| HPS 314 | Philosophy of Science |
| PHI 314 | Philosophy of Science |
| PHI 792 | Research |
| PHI 799 | Dissertation |
2020 Fall
| Course Number | Course Title |
|---|---|
| PHI 101 | Introduction to Philosophy |
| PHI 420 | Topics in Philosophy |
| PHI 792 | Research |
| PHI 799 | Dissertation |
| PHI 565 | Probabilism |
2020 Summer
| Course Number | Course Title |
|---|---|
| HPS 322 | History of Science |
2020 Spring
| Course Number | Course Title |
|---|---|
| PHI 333 | Symbolic Logic |
| PHI 101 | Introduction to Philosophy |
| PHI 792 | Research |
| PHI 799 | Dissertation |
2019 Fall
| Course Number | Course Title |
|---|---|
| PHI 792 | Research |
| PHI 799 | Dissertation |
2019 Summer
| Course Number | Course Title |
|---|---|
| HPS 322 | History of Science |
2019 Spring
| Course Number | Course Title |
|---|---|
| HPS 314 | Philosophy of Science |
| HPS 322 | History of Science |
| HPS 322 | History of Science |
| PHI 314 | Philosophy of Science |
| PHI 792 | Research |
| PHI 799 | Dissertation |
| HPS 512 | Philosophy of Science |
Presentations
- Brad Armendt. On an Impossibility Result for Best Systems Analysis. APA Pacific Division Meeting, San Francisco (Apr 2016).
- Brad Armendt. Risks and Beliefs. Department of Logic and Philosophy of Science, University of California, Irvine (Nov 2013).
- Brad Armendt. Imprecise Belief and What's at Stake. Models and Decisions: MST 2013, Ludwig Maximillian University, Munich (Apr 2013).
- Brad Armendt. On Degrees of Incoherence and Dutch Books. APA Pacific Division Meeting, San Francisco (Apr 2013).
- Brad Armendt. Pragmatic Interests and Imprecise Belief. PSA 2012 Biennial meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association, San Diego (Nov 2012).
- Brad Armendt. Risk and Rational Choice. Formal Epistemology Workshop 2012, Munich (May 2012).
- Brad Armendt. Questions. Origins of Xenophobia Workshop, ASU Center for Social Dynamics and Complexity (Apr 2012).
- Brad Armendt. Belief Here, Doubt There-What do you Really Think?. Center for Philosophy of Science, University of Pittsburgh (Apr 2011).
- Brad Armendt. Comments on Property Theories of Belief and Degrees of Belief. American Philosophical Association Pacific Division Meeting, San Diego (Apr 2011).
- Brad Armendt. Stakes and beliefs and subjective probability. Biological Physics Chalk Talk, ASU (Oct 2010).
- Brad Armendt. Understanding and Knowledge. American Philosophical Association Pacific Division Meeting, San Francisco (Mar 2010).
- Armendt, Brad. Pragmatic Interests and the Strength of Belief. EpiConFor: Epistemology Context Formalism, Nancy, France (Nov 2009).
- Armendt, Brad. Stakes and Beliefs. ASU Philosophy Colloquium (Oct 2009).
- Brad Armendt. Shogenji on Degrees of Epistemic Justification. American Philosophical Association Eastern Division Meeting, Philadelphia (Dec 2008).
- Brad Armendt. Beliefs, Believings, and What’s at Stake. Philosophy Department, California University of Pennsylvania (Nov 2008).
- Armendt, Brad. Stakes and Beliefs. Laguna Workshop 2008, Laguna Beach (Mar 2008).
- Armendt, Brad. Stake-Invariant Belief. Boulder Conference on Philosophy of Science (Oct 2007).
- Armendt, Brad. Deliberation and the Logic of Partial Belief. Bled Conference on Contemporary Epistemology (May 2007).
- Armendt, Brad. Philosophy and Normative Judgment. IHR Faculty Seminar (Feb 2007).
- Armendt, Brad. Degrees of Belief and Dutch Books. Conference on Probability, Australian National University (Mar 2006).
- Armendt, Brad. Coherence and Consistency. Prague International Colloquium: Dutch Book Arguments (Aug 2005).
- Griffin, W, Schmidt, S, Armendt, Brad. Simulating Decisions of Water Use in Uncertain Times in the Southwestern US: An ABM of Strategies and Population Level Actions. North American Association for Computational Social and Organizational Science (Jun 2005).
Professional Associations
American Philosophical Association
Philosophy of Science Association
Graduate Faculties / Mentoring History
Graduate Faculties
Philosophy
History and Philosophy of Science
Complex Adaptive Systems Science
Human and Social Dimensions of Science and Technology
PhD Students, Dissertations Directed
JaeMin Jung, Epistemic Conservatism, Permissivism, and Disagreement, PhD Philosophy, 2016
Wesley Anderson, Advancing the Causal Theory of Natural Selection, PhD History and Philosophy of Science, 2016.
Alexander Novack, Cornering The Truth: A Defense Of Scientific Realism, PhD Philosophy, 2013.
Chong Ho Yu, Automated Causal Modeling, Latent Constructs, and Abductive Inference, PhD Philosophy 2007.
Service
- Refereeing for many academic journals (ongoing)
- FWF (Austrian Science Fund) proposal reviewer, 2018.
- SHPRS Transdisciplinary Committee, (2017-2019)
- Philosophy Director of Undergraduate Studies, (2016-2017)
- Philosophy Curriculm Committee, chair (2016-2017)
- Philosophy of Science Association, Program Committee for PSA 2014 meeting (2013 - 2015)
- Center for Social Dynamics and Complexity, Core Faculty, member (2011 - Present)
- Philosophy Graduate Committee, member (2014 - 2016)
- NSF SES Science, Technology, and Society, Proposal reviewer (2014 - 2014)
- Personnel Committee, University Senate, chair (2012 - 2014)
- University Senate Executive Committee, member (2012 - 2014)
- NSF, Proposal reviewer (2012)
- CLAS Senate, senator (2011 - 2014)
- University Senate, senator (2011 - 2014)
- Personnel Committee, University Senate, chair (2012 - 2013)
- Program Committee, MST 2013 Models and Decisions Conference, LMU, Munich, member (2012 - 2013)
- Oxford University Press, reviewer (2011 - 2011)
- Springer Publishing, reviewer (2011 - 2011)
- SOLS Undergraduate Programs Committee, member (2010 - 2010)
- Cambridge University Press, manuscript reviewing (2009 - 2009)
- CLAS Undergraduate Research Scholarship in the Natural Sciences Faculty Selection Committee, member (2009 - 2009)
- Philosophy Curriculum Committee, member (2007 - 2009)
- CLAS Undergraduate Research Scholarship in the Natural Sciences Faculty Selection Committee, member (2008 - 2008)
- SOLS Undergraduate Programs Committee, member (2007 - 2008)
- NSF, Proposal reviewer (2007)
- Philosophy of Science Association, Program Committee for PSA 2006 meeting (2005 - 2007)
- CLAS Science and Society requirement implementation committee, member (2006 - 2007)
- Philosophy Colloquium Series, organizer (2005 - 2007)
- University of Sydney, External examiner, PhD (2007)
- CLAS Committee on Committees, chair (2005 - 2006)
- Economics and Philosophy, refereeing (2005)
- History and Philosophy of Science program, Director (2004 - 2005)
- Academic Chairs and Directors Council, Steering Committee Member (1999 - 2002)
- CLAS Task Force on Humanities, Member (2002)